“What is going to happen?”
For thirty years, every room asked the same question. Some of the answer is genuinely unknowable. The structure underneath it is not — and it can be tested.
The book
The Opaque Surprise
How technology transitions really work — and what to do when even the builders can’t see what’s coming. A book about the structural pattern underneath four decades of technology transitions, tested against the documented record, with working tests a strategist can run on Monday. Currently in preparation.
The essays
Scenario Planning Methodology Series
A series of essays on where scenario planning works, where it fails, and what to do at the boundary — the intellectual seedbed of the book. The series opens with Opaque Surprises — Where Scenario Planning Falls Short.
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